Shambhavi Singh

Shambhavi Singh

Assistant Professor (Statistics)

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Bayes Analysis of Hadwiger Fertility Model Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Published in Aligarh Journal of Statistics, 2024

Once a fertility model said — “We need to talk!” “What happened?” — I asked. “This assumption about independence of my parameters, it’s not working anymore,” it replied. And then we found the solution, with the help of Gaussian copula and MCMC methods.

Recommended citation: Singh, S., Gupta, A., & Upadhyay, S. K. (2025). "Bayes Analysis of Hadwiger Fertility Model Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation", *Aligarh Journal of Statistics*, Vol. 44, 103–112.
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A Bayes Study of Human Fertility Curve Using Mixture of Two Weibull Densities

Published in Journal of the Indian Society for Probability and Statistics, 2025

The ASFR curves aren’t smooth anymore. Instead, they have humps in the early ages of childbearing. These distortions reflect societal shifts—early age births for some, delayed motherhood for others. With 3 competing models on the table — Weibull-Weibull, Weibull-Normal, and Generalized Gamma-Normal — the Bayesian toolkit comes to the rescue. Conclusion: The answer to distortions lies not in complexity, but in some clever combinations!

Recommended citation: Singh, S. & Upadhyay, S. K. (2025). "A Bayes Study of Human Fertility Curve Using Mixture of Two Weibull Densities." Journal of the Indian Society for Probability and Statistics, 437–461.
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Modeling Human Fertility Using Variance-adjusted Logistic Family of Distributions

Published in American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences, 2025

What to do when the fertility models can no longer keep up with the ever changing shapes of fertility curves? This work proposes a family of flexible models that adjusts not just according to temporal changes but geographic locations as well. You can think of them as statistical chameleons — able to morph into unimodal, skewed, or even bimodal shapes depending on the context of study!!

Recommended citation: Singh, S., Gupta, A., & Upadhyay, S. K. (2025). "Modeling Human Fertility Using Variance-Adjusted Logistic Family of Distributions." American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences. 1-24.
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